Beware the Yield Curve
The rise in yields is happening far too quickly and in a vacuum, absent data, for a normal robust ma...
Lunatics have taken over the Asylum
Bitcoin could conceivably go to 0. Stocks could potentially lose 80%. Never in our life time do we a...
China's Debt Problem; Keeping an Eye on it
China is the world’s second largest economy and often not seen anymore as an emerging market. China...
Financial Storm's Last Port: Sovereign Bonds
In a true and complete financial panic where everything is suspect liquidity will become paramount....
Treasuries Blow Out: We don’t agree
Yields on long dated Treasuries have climbed over the last few sessions. The markets are nervous all...
Debt is like NYC Tap Water: Cheap and Plentiful
Nothing in New York is cheap, probably with the exception of tap water. Debt – and more specificall...
Stimulus isn't a Long Term Strategy: More like a Bet with a British Bookie
There’s an old adage: Markets hate uncertainty. But it seems that the current stimulus uncertainty...
Talking About Inflation and Creating Inflation, Are Very Different Beasts
After decades of trying to create inflation, we have had lackluster results (and most of these years...
The (almost) $10 Trillion Question ?
The Fed knows that the economy is so over-leveraged, unproductive and bloated with trillions of doll...
The Black Swan that Breaks the Camel’s Back
We at MacroTOMI believe that the enormity of the current situation is so gigantic, that the current...
Why the Treasury Auction Wasn’t So Ugly
The spike in yields wasn’t because of better than expected jobs numbers or a jump in CPI or a jump i...
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
Would you go skydiving if your parachute had a 50% chance of opening; most people would say no. T...
No Inflation, No Stagflation, Yields and Bonds
Even with the explosion of the monetary base in 2008 with the great recession and the stimulus provi...
The Mechanics of Bonds
Originally all bonds were bearer, payable to whoever held them, like the notes in your wallet. Beare...
Why we think Treasury Bonds are still a Good Buy
“You mean all I have to do is listen and I will become rich”. “Yes”, he replied, but most of you wil...
The Unusual Situation of Negative Rates May Be Not So Unusual Soon
Commercial banks would have an incentive during severe recessions and depressions to make negative i...
The Markets are in a Suspended Animation Perpetuating a Denial of Reality
Question is, why are we still here? Why is the market still exuberant? The market is waiting for mor...