How to ensure your investments beat inflation
If you believe that inflation is really going to take off (we don’t), what should you do? Once again...
Searching for Real Yield
Following the kind of stock market blow-out that we are anticipating there will be plenty of high yi...
Beating the Drums of Inflation
It seems like the inflationistas are predicting inflation rather than showing data to support it’s e...
Beware the Yield Curve
The rise in yields is happening far too quickly and in a vacuum, absent data, for a normal robust ma...
Lunatics have taken over the Asylum
Bitcoin could conceivably go to 0. Stocks could potentially lose 80%. Never in our life time do we a...
Back to Normal: We're not buying it
Mainstream consensus is a return to normal - we're not buying it. Inflation, jobs, asset prices are...
Vaccine: Shot of Reality
Assuming the vaccine is as protective as best case scenario, there remain more hurdles; never befor...
Markets Wait for an 'Aha' Moment: Pressure
In more ‘usual’ times – the markets hate uncertainty and are skittish with bad news, especially that...
Treasuries Blow Out: We don’t agree
Yields on long dated Treasuries have climbed over the last few sessions. The markets are nervous all...
Debt is like NYC Tap Water: Cheap and Plentiful
Nothing in New York is cheap, probably with the exception of tap water. Debt – and more specificall...
Stimulus isn't a Long Term Strategy: More like a Bet with a British Bookie
There’s an old adage: Markets hate uncertainty. But it seems that the current stimulus uncertainty...
Why Dollar Collapse may not be coming
It is difficult to think of any area in finance where more nonsense is written about than that of th...
Storm's A Brewing: The dark clouds are starting to gather
Sentiment is turning and the easiness of summer is fading. If we don’t get more stimulus there i...
State of the Economy: A House of Cards
Economic activity is a fraction of recent historical norms. The status quo is not sustainable. We ar...
Talking About Inflation and Creating Inflation, Are Very Different Beasts
After decades of trying to create inflation, we have had lackluster results (and most of these years...
The (almost) $10 Trillion Question ?
The Fed knows that the economy is so over-leveraged, unproductive and bloated with trillions of doll...
The Black Swan that Breaks the Camel’s Back
We at MacroTOMI believe that the enormity of the current situation is so gigantic, that the current...
Why the Treasury Auction Wasn’t So Ugly
The spike in yields wasn’t because of better than expected jobs numbers or a jump in CPI or a jump i...
Where are the ‘Negative Real Rates’ ?
Such predictions of inflation are in its early days. Even if inflation does present itself – it woul...
Employment Data Show Probable Dead Cat Bounce
We are currently tempering unemployment with what is now the tail end of the Payroll Protection Prog...
Don't underestimate the Fed's playbook.
By giving the allusion of a backstop, the Fed has enabled corporates to gorge on new debt issuance i...
The Markets are in a Suspended Animation Perpetuating a Denial of Reality
Question is, why are we still here? Why is the market still exuberant? The market is waiting for mor...